Why Cloud Computing Is Here To Stay

Occasionally, you hear the argument that cloud computing is the latest incarnation of a trend that comes and goes throughout the history of computing. It used to be called time-sharing in the early days, and client-server during the 80ies and 90ies. Depending on the relative cost of networking versus processing, computing tended to be either centralized or decentralized. The reasoning is that we are currently in a phase where processing is cheaper than networking, so that cloud computing is economically reasonable. As a consequence, we might see another shift in these numbers so that we would see a tendency towards decentralization.

There is a flaw in this logic, however: networking and computing are not the only factors in this equation. The costs of operating an IT system must be considered as well. And while networking and computing became cheaper and cheaper over time, the operational costs are staying the same or even rising, because the systems are becoming increasingly complex.

(I came across this insight in a talk by security-guru Bruce Schneier)